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Sep 4, 2012
09/12
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we've got manufacturing contracting here in the united states. yesterday, we learned it's contracting in the china for the first time since november and in europe, it continues to contract. and yet, you think that the market is well supported here, why? >> i think it's going to be a range bound market. i think right now, we're in the tougher end of the range. there are two things that are supporting the market. one, there is an economic value to entities and so the lbo or acquisition value is providing support. to the extent companies return cash to shareholders, that offers some support. >> do you see many acquisitions in the market at the moment? >> no, and that's one of the things that's been surprising and disappointing at the same time. it's interesting. there are areas of the market where you've seen capital flow to economic opportunity. for example, buying single family homes to rent them out. which is an arbitrage that was made available by the decline housing prices you haven't seen a comparable level of activity on the corporate side, w
we've got manufacturing contracting here in the united states. yesterday, we learned it's contracting in the china for the first time since november and in europe, it continues to contract. and yet, you think that the market is well supported here, why? >> i think it's going to be a range bound market. i think right now, we're in the tougher end of the range. there are two things that are supporting the market. one, there is an economic value to entities and so the lbo or acquisition...
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Sep 7, 2012
09/12
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whatever is happening here in the united states today, it is risk on if you're in the banks. take a look at even the german banks. of course, who wants to concentrate on the bonds? look at this, deutsch bank up 6%. big bank across europe rallied strongly again today. there is no new news today but the confidence is shifting. it may not be sustained. they may sell off on monday. but, look, in italy, this bank here almost up 10%. you know these guys here exposed to sovereign debt. look at the way in which they have gained today. separate to that, of course, kate kelly was showing us that we have an improved offer for xtrata. importantly, from china, and i've spoke with the steel stocks. in china you have the announcement of $157 billion of infrastructure spending. look at how the other miners around the world, a lot of them in london, have also gained today. it's been a terrible performer, up 7%. a very important day today in europe. melissa, back to you. >> let's get a check on energy and commodities. sharon epperson at the nymex. sharon? >> it's an important day in the commod
whatever is happening here in the united states today, it is risk on if you're in the banks. take a look at even the german banks. of course, who wants to concentrate on the bonds? look at this, deutsch bank up 6%. big bank across europe rallied strongly again today. there is no new news today but the confidence is shifting. it may not be sustained. they may sell off on monday. but, look, in italy, this bank here almost up 10%. you know these guys here exposed to sovereign debt. look at the way...
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Sep 19, 2012
09/12
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in the united states this is totally open ended and as the fed announced last week. they're just going to print money until we see a major improvement in the job market. i consider what's happening in europe actually better monetary poli policy. >> why would you consider it better? i don't think either of those policies address what they're trying to address. in the case of the u.s. i don't see a correlation with fed programs and unemployment or at least not one big enough to pull out and with regard to europe, if outside investors don't come in or you don't fix what's wrong with these countries, how long can the printing presses go? can you comment on my opinion versus yours? >> sure. remember, europe is where we were a few years ago. they still have to shore up the banking system. they have to do a lot of things including deposit insurance if you deposit in different countries, so what draghi is doing is financially trying to shore up the banking system. what we're doing in the united states if you at price of gold, the inflationary expectations in the tips market,
in the united states this is totally open ended and as the fed announced last week. they're just going to print money until we see a major improvement in the job market. i consider what's happening in europe actually better monetary poli policy. >> why would you consider it better? i don't think either of those policies address what they're trying to address. in the case of the u.s. i don't see a correlation with fed programs and unemployment or at least not one big enough to pull out and...
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Sep 5, 2012
09/12
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to see good retail in the united states. i see good housing in the united states. how many times did phil lebeau come on and say every single auto maker 14.5 million autos? i mean that's booming. union pacific, things are great. so you just get a picture that says, wait. need to go back to the u.s. again. >> three months of contracting isms. that's a problem. deutsche bank is out this morning saying if you correlate ism to the s&p you would either need a 10% correction in the market or ism back to 54 to justify the current level. >> well, if it's either/or -- the former certainly makes more sense. >> we keep it going. we're reflecting china and europe in the lack of growth in our economy or are they really going to bring us down? >> they reflected china in the chinese stock market which is really hideous. you want to see a real bear market, by the way, versus these european markets. we can say all the negative things you want but you made more money in germany this year so far than in the united states. something isn't it? >
to see good retail in the united states. i see good housing in the united states. how many times did phil lebeau come on and say every single auto maker 14.5 million autos? i mean that's booming. union pacific, things are great. so you just get a picture that says, wait. need to go back to the u.s. again. >> three months of contracting isms. that's a problem. deutsche bank is out this morning saying if you correlate ism to the s&p you would either need a 10% correction in the market...
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170
Sep 6, 2012
09/12
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we have lackluster growth in the united states. we have draghi coming out and downgrading the gdp outlook and out right recession as europe will likely be in 2013. how can this be? the answer from the bulls is where earnings may be lackluster but they'll still be positive. here is the estimates right now for earning. question down, q4 a big bump up. this isn't going to happen. this is 14 thst. the numbers will come down but still positive. overall for 2012, 4%, maybe 3%. not as much as in the past year. it is still growth, 2013, you know the numbers are the how. you know they will come down. it is 11%. that will probably end up at 5% next year. 5% growth, carl, is still 5%. it is not negative earnings growth. to argue for negative earnings growth, let me tell you what people are telling me. they keep saying you can't do this way. revenue growth is petering out, the margin expansions are tougher, china will have a hard landing, a soft patch in the u.s. economy, we'll hit the fiscal cliff. this is what people yell at me every day. he
we have lackluster growth in the united states. we have draghi coming out and downgrading the gdp outlook and out right recession as europe will likely be in 2013. how can this be? the answer from the bulls is where earnings may be lackluster but they'll still be positive. here is the estimates right now for earning. question down, q4 a big bump up. this isn't going to happen. this is 14 thst. the numbers will come down but still positive. overall for 2012, 4%, maybe 3%. not as much as in the...